Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DART +175 UVM -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DART +30 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DART -0.7 (+29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DART -2.1 (+27.9) | 133.3 (+4.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DART -1.4 (+28.6) | 132.3 (+5.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DART -1.7 (+28.3) | 132.3 (+5.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -0.7 (+30.7) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | UVM 64 – 53 DART |
| Dec 7, 2022 | UVM 68 – 52 DART |
| Dec 2, 2021 | UVM 83 – 65 DART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DART | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#301) | -4.8 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#292) | -0.71 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#298) | -0.82 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#303) | 0.470 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DART | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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