Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -185 BGSU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -7.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -4.7 (-12.7) | 152.4 (-4.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -4.9 (-12.9) | 149.9 (-1.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -4.8 (-12.8) | 150.4 (-2.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -5.0 (-13.0) | 152.0 (-4.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 1-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 3-11 | 9-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#262) | -6.5 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#298) | -1.04 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#289) | -1.17 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#279) | 0.408 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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