Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -13.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.7 (-1.7) | 131.6 (+5.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -8.8 (+0.2) | 135.7 (+1.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -11.3 (-2.3) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.2 (-2.2) | 132.0 (+5.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2026 | MSU 77 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#22) | 6.2 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#38) | 1.64 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#33) | 2.73 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#11) | 0.619 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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