Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -265 LOU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -0.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.7 (+7.3) | 149.6 (-3.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MSU -1.4 (+6.6) | 150.5 (-4.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MSU -1.3 (+6.7) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -0.2 (+7.8) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2021 | MSU 73 – 64 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#10) | 20.2 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#11) | 2.82 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.43 (#12) | 3.58 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#8) | 0.598 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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