The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
(3) Michigan State Spartans
77 69
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) Louisville Cardinals
KeyBank Center (Neutral) · March 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -5.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Under
Money MSU -265 / LOU +215
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSU win
Actual MSU +8 146 Won
Massey MSU -0.1 (+7.9)
Massey Totals 150.1 (-4.1)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 70%
Baseline Plus ML MSU -0.7 (+7.3) 149.6 (-3.6) 54%
Model 4 ML MSU -1.4 (+6.6) 150.5 (-4.5) 61%
Model 3 ML MSU -1.3 (+6.7) 149.5 (-3.5) 60%
Baseline ML MSU -0.2 (+7.8) 150.7 (-4.7) 43%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 2, 2021 MSU 7364 LOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSU LOU
Overall 27-8 24-11
Conference 15-5 11-7
Home 15-2 15-2
Away 6-4 4-7
Neutral 6-2 5-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.8 84.3
Avg Pts Against 68.3 72.5
Massey 20.3 (#10) 20.2 (#11)
Bradley-Terry 3.54 (#11) 2.82 (#23)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.43 (#12) 3.58 (#21)
RPI 0.632 (#8) 0.598 (#25)
Shooting & Four Factors MSU LOU
FG% 47.4% 47.2%
3PT% 36.3% 36.1%
REB / G 39.7 38.5
OREB / G 12.5 11.3
AST / TO 1.62 1.43
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.0% 56.7%
TOV% 17.0% 16.8%
ORB% 38.0% 33.0%
FT Rate 27.6% 25.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 48.5%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 16.6%
DRB% 77.7% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 23.6%

Game Analysis

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