Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -13.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -10.3 (-15.3) | 138.6 (-17.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -10.5 (-15.5) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -11.6 (-16.6) | 139.7 (-18.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -9.8 (-14.8) | 136.7 (-15.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#88) | -2.5 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#92) | -0.39 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#114) | -1.01 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#94) | 0.486 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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