Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +230 MOST -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -5.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -7.0 (+12.0) | 155.8 (-2.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -6.1 (+11.1) | 157.5 (-4.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.7 (+11.7) | 160.5 (-7.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.8 (+9.8) | 160.2 (-7.2) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#265) | 6.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#271) | -0.31 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#275) | -0.10 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#286) | 0.437 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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