Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +15 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -12.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -11.5 (-3.5) | 142.1 (-15.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -7.3 (-7.7) | 147.2 (-20.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.2 (-6.8) | 147.4 (-20.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.2 (-4.8) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | VILL 90 – 63 PENN |
| Nov 20, 2024 | VILL 93 – 49 PENN |
| Nov 14, 2023 | PENN 76 – 72 VILL |
| Dec 8, 2022 | VILL 70 – 59 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 62.7 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#218) | 16.0 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#174) | 2.02 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#188) | 4.03 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#154) | 0.612 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 42.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 2.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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