Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | PENN +600 VILL -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -8.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -2.7 (+1.3) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -5.4 (-1.4) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -5.9 (-1.9) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -5.7 (-1.7) | 138.2 (+9.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | VILL 90 – 63 PENN |
| Nov 20, 2024 | VILL 93 – 49 PENN |
| Dec 8, 2022 | VILL 70 – 59 PENN |
| Dec 2, 2021 | VILL 71 – 56 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#120) | 5.2 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#158) | 0.52 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#156) | 0.69 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#110) | 0.375 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 2.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 81.3% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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