Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | VILL -1600 PENN +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -9.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -9.8 (+1.2) | 142.9 (-13.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.2 (+5.8) | 148.7 (-19.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.6 (+5.4) | 150.2 (-21.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.0 (+5.0) | 148.1 (-19.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | VILL 90 – 63 PENN |
| Nov 20, 2024 | VILL 93 – 49 PENN |
| Nov 14, 2023 | PENN 76 – 72 VILL |
| Dec 2, 2021 | VILL 71 – 56 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#140) | -2.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#216) | -0.61 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#187) | -0.36 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#216) | 0.488 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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