Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UNC +120 MICH -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.7 (+17.3) | 148.8 (-25.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.3 (+17.7) | 147.2 (-24.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.3 (+16.7) | 151.0 (-28.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.3 (+16.7) | 150.2 (-27.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | UNC 80 – 76 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#75) | 8.4 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#47) | 0.72 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#36) | 1.71 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#40) | 0.556 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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