Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
| Money | UNC -250 MICH +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -5.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.5 (+0.5) | 156.8 (-0.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.3 (-0.3) | 154.6 (+1.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.9 (+0.1) | 155.1 (+0.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.6 (+0.4) | 155.4 (+0.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2021 | UNC 72 – 51 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#28) | 6.1 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#34) | 1.41 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#34) | 2.36 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#14) | 0.569 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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