Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +2 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -5.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -5.9 (+3.9) | 132.6 (-22.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -4.3 (+2.3) | 137.2 (-27.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.8 (+2.8) | 136.1 (-26.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -3.6 (+1.6) | 134.1 (-24.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#278) | 5.2 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#287) | 0.38 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#296) | 0.68 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#319) | 0.502 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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