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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–9 on winners spread MAE 9.5 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Presbyterian @ Tennessee +20.7 133.7 97% 44–86 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ UConn +29.9 149.7 100% 63–72 ✓
Chattanooga @ Tennessee Tech -0.7 132.3 48% 82–65 ✓
Furman @ High Point -8.2 154.8 23% 74–70 ✓
Howard @ Mount St. Mary's -3.5 145.5 37% 70–72 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northeastern +7.0 127.6 74% 56–66 ✓
Elon @ UNC Greensboro +14.9 140.1 91% 61–74 ✓
Long Island University @ Delaware +16.1 163.3 93% 67–75 ✓
Longwood @ Georgetown -2.5 134.1 41% 83–91 ✗
Old Dominion @ East Carolina +12.1 132.9 86% 62–63 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M +18.4 139.4 95% 65–85 ✓
Davidson @ Charlotte -1.8 140.0 43% 75–58 ✓
Sacred Heart @ NJIT +13.5 138.8 89% 70–75 ✓
Indiana @ Syracuse -2.0 147.3 43% 110–112 ✗
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh -9.9 127.9 18% 54–53 ✓
Bellarmine @ West Virginia +11.4 139.8 85% 55–74 ✓
Siena @ Army +23.4 127.6 98% 83–67 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Manhattan +12.7 134.4 88% 73–78 ✓
Florida State @ Purdue +16.8 149.5 94% 65–93 ✓
Tulane @ Charleston +11.6 153.6 85% 77–81 ✓
Rider @ Ole Miss +10.0 130.7 82% 51–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston +39.9 135.7 100% 58–99 ✓
Texas State @ Rice -0.1 156.9 50% 80–69 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ South Dakota State +23.0 168.8 98% 90–99 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Omaha -8.9 132.5 21% 75–65 ✓
Jackson State @ Marquette +13.8 136.9 89% 54–83 ✓
Saint Louis @ Boise State +3.6 129.4 63% 86–82 ✗
New Mexico @ New Mexico State +13.2 152.1 88% 101–94 ✗
Hawai'i @ Santa Clara +12.3 161.6 87% 58–70 ✓
Northwestern @ Wake Forest +3.8 153.9 64% 73–77 ✓
Clemson @ Rutgers +0.6 127.5 52% 64–74 ✓
North Dakota State @ Creighton +14.1 134.6 90% 55–80 ✓
Duke @ Ohio State -5.4 158.4 31% 66–71 ✗
South Dakota @ San José State +11.8 142.4 86% 52–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ San Diego State +18.0 140.2 95% 47–72 ✓
Pepperdine @ Nevada +19.1 150.8 96% 66–79 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate +6.6 133.4 72% 67–65 ✗
The Citadel @ UNC Asheville -3.9 148.7 36% 58–65 ✗
American University @ Stony Brook +14.8 148.5 91% 57–80 ✓
Central Michigan @ Xavier +27.7 139.9 99% 45–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.