Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -25.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +33 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -28.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -24.7 (+8.3) | 142.6 (-19.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -21.0 (+12.0) | 142.7 (-19.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -26.8 (+6.2) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -25.5 (+7.5) | 143.0 (-20.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-5 | 2-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#38) | -13.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#15) | -1.70 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.08 (#12) | -2.78 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#3) | 0.443 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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