Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -1.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.7 (+1.3) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.4 (-1.4) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.1 (+1.9) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.4 (+1.6) | 144.0 (-2.0) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | MSM 79 – 75 HOW |
| Nov 30, 2024 | MSM 79 – 75 HOW |
| Nov 25, 2023 | HOW 87 – 83 MSM |
| Dec 21, 2022 | HOW 63 – 62 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#328) | -1.6 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#249) | -1.53 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#270) | -2.54 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#231) | 0.355 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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