Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -135 HOW +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -0.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -0.5 (+4.5) | 138.6 (+15.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.5 (+4.5) | 140.3 (+13.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.6 (+4.6) | 140.1 (+13.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.3 (+5.3) | 139.6 (+14.4) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | MSM 79 – 75 HOW |
| Nov 25, 2023 | HOW 87 – 83 MSM |
| Dec 21, 2022 | HOW 63 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 1, 2021 | MSM 72 – 70 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#340) | -7.4 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#333) | -1.26 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#335) | -1.54 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#297) | 0.434 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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