Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -150 MSM +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -1.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -0.2 (+0.8) | 134.0 (-9.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.9 (+1.9) | 132.3 (-7.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.2 (+1.2) | 134.6 (-9.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.2 (+0.8) | 134.1 (-9.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | MSM 79 – 75 HOW |
| Nov 30, 2024 | MSM 79 – 75 HOW |
| Nov 25, 2023 | HOW 87 – 83 MSM |
| Dec 1, 2021 | MSM 72 – 70 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#306) | -1.6 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#255) | -0.74 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#269) | -0.84 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.465 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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