Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -330 MSM +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -7.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -3.2 (-7.2) | 142.9 (+11.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -4.2 (-8.2) | 143.3 (+10.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -4.0 (-8.0) | 144.6 (+9.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -4.1 (-8.1) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | MSM 79 – 75 HOW |
| Nov 25, 2023 | HOW 87 – 83 MSM |
| Dec 21, 2022 | HOW 63 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 1, 2021 | MSM 72 – 70 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#247) | -6.4 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#291) | 1.17 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#294) | 0.87 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#241) | 0.553 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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