Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -7.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -4.7 (-6.7) | 139.6 (-7.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -6.1 (-8.1) | 138.4 (-6.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -5.0 (-7.0) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -7.2 (-9.2) | 141.8 (-9.8) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UPST 82 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UPST 85 – 82 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#263) | -6.0 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#254) | -2.54 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#256) | -4.04 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#253) | 0.368 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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