Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -345 NCCU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -17.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -11.2 (+3.8) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -11.8 (+3.2) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -12.2 (+2.8) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -12.7 (+2.3) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | UPST 85 – 82 NCCU |
| Dec 1, 2021 | NCCU 67 – 65 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#219) | -14.1 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#215) | -1.46 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#291) | -2.66 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#216) | 0.499 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 38.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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