That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
McDougald-McLendon Arena · December 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NCCU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money NCCU -150 / UPST +163
Model Predictions
Spread Total NCCU win
Actual UPST +3 167 Lost
Massey NCCU -10.5 (-13.5)
Massey Totals 137.4 (+29.6)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 91%
Efficiency Plus ML NCCU -6.8 (-9.8) 136.6 (+30.4) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML NCCU -6.9 (-9.9) 136.9 (+30.1) 72%
Baseline ML NCCU -6.9 (-9.9) 136.4 (+30.6) 72%
Baseline Plus ML NCCU -6.7 (-9.7) 136.9 (+30.1) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2025 UPST 8267 NCCU
Dec 1, 2021 NCCU 6765 UPST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NCCU UPST
Overall 18-13 10-20
Conference 9-5 5-11
Home 11-2 6-7
Away 6-9 4-12
Neutral 1-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.9 68.5
Avg Pts Against 70.9 74.8
Massey -3.5 (#239) -7.8 (#310)
Bradley-Terry -0.46 (#226) -1.22 (#272)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.14 (#247) -1.99 (#283)
RPI 0.495 (#186) 0.451 (#249)
Shooting & Four Factors NCCU UPST
FG% 39.7% 38.7%
3PT% 25.9% 33.1%
REB / G 33.0 29.2
OREB / G 11.5 8.7
AST / TO 0.77 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.8% 45.1%
TOV% 17.6% 13.6%
ORB% 30.8% 22.1%
FT Rate 21.0% 13.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 20.2%
DRB% 66.8% 62.1%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 31.7%

Game Analysis

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