Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -150 UPST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -10.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -6.8 (-9.8) | 136.6 (+30.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -6.9 (-9.9) | 136.9 (+30.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -6.9 (-9.9) | 136.4 (+30.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -6.7 (-9.7) | 136.9 (+30.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UPST 82 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 1, 2021 | NCCU 67 – 65 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#239) | -7.8 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#226) | -1.22 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#247) | -1.99 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#186) | 0.451 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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