Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +29 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -12.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.9 (+17.1) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -8.7 (+20.3) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -9.2 (+19.8) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -9.6 (+19.4) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#154) | -5.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#46) | 0.37 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#81) | 1.09 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#15) | 0.511 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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