Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+39.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.7 (+6.3) | 137.3 (+36.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -0.6 (+7.4) | 137.9 (+36.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -0.3 (+7.7) | 138.0 (+36.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -0.1 (+7.9) | 137.6 (+36.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#276) | 1.6 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#300) | -0.99 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#297) | -1.14 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#315) | 0.445 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 11.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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