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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–4 on winners
spread MAE 12.7
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central Michigan
@
Kentucky
|
+32.0 | 149.1 | 100% | 57–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+7.6 | 135.5 | 75% | 58–83 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Columbia
|
+9.2 | 146.1 | 80% | 73–50 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Virginia
|
-3.3 | 140.3 | 38% | 75–74 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Boston College
|
+12.0 | 108.8 | 86% | 49–64 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Canisius
|
-3.0 | 160.0 | 39% | 89–75 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Colgate
|
+7.3 | 140.2 | 75% | 70–59 | ✗ |
East Texas A&M
@
South Alabama
|
+14.4 | 127.9 | 91% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
TCU
|
+7.9 | 135.9 | 76% | 51–68 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+30.5 | 141.7 | 100% | 36–75 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Oral Roberts
|
+4.1 | 150.0 | 65% | 80–87 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas
|
+26.8 | 125.1 | 99% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Hampton
|
+1.2 | 147.4 | 54% | 60–47 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+25.6 | 132.2 | 99% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Illinois
|
+10.7 | 136.4 | 84% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Gonzaga
|
+30.9 | 131.5 | 100% | 55–64 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Oregon
|
+6.4 | 135.8 | 72% | 47–87 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-5.2 | 131.4 | 32% | 79–66 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Loyola Marymount
|
-3.9 | 131.2 | 36% | 78–72 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Saint Mary's
|
+7.5 | 115.5 | 75% | 50–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.