Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USA -14.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -12.4 (-9.4) | 137.2 (-2.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -9.5 (-6.5) | 132.3 (+2.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -10.3 (-7.3) | 134.5 (+0.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | USA 81 – 72 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#73) | -1.8 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#91) | 1.76 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#93) | 2.11 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#28) | 0.645 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 38.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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