Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -210 ND +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -12.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.7 (+0.3) | 135.9 (+18.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -10.8 (-0.8) | 139.5 (+14.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.3 (-0.3) | 140.0 (+14.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.9 (+1.1) | 138.8 (+15.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#72) | 0.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#114) | -0.13 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#103) | 0.24 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#56) | 0.524 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.