Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +13 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -1.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.5 (-12.5) | 139.2 (-32.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -2.2 (-15.2) | 141.8 (-34.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -1.9 (-14.9) | 141.2 (-34.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -1.9 (-14.9) | 140.9 (-33.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#309) | -10.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#313) | -2.52 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#309) | -4.08 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#318) | 0.396 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.4% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.