Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -31.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | GONZ -4000 TAR +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -32.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -27.3 (-18.3) | 137.0 (-18.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -23.8 (-14.8) | 139.5 (-20.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -28.0 (-19.0) | 139.2 (-20.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -27.0 (-18.0) | 138.2 (-19.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-1 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#2) | -2.1 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#17) | -1.48 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.20 (#9) | -1.60 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#29) | 0.444 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.3% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 26.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.7% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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