Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UK -33.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -26.4 (+1.6) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -24.3 (+3.7) | 150.3 (-8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -30.0 (-2.0) | 149.3 (-7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -29.3 (-1.3) | 149.5 (-7.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 18-0 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#22) | -13.3 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#58) | -1.68 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#33) | -2.80 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#139) | 0.427 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 48.0% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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