Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -550 UCR +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +17 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -7.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -6.5 (+10.5) | 122.5 (-5.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -5.9 (+11.1) | 124.7 (-7.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.9 (+11.1) | 124.5 (-7.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -7.2 (+9.8) | 126.4 (-9.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#105) | 3.0 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#83) | 1.05 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#83) | 1.52 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#96) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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