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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
7 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Francis
@
Lehigh
|
+5.7 | 147.1 | 70% | 79–68 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Colorado
|
+8.8 | 144.3 | 79% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
Norfolk State
|
+2.8 | 149.2 | 60% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
California
|
+2.4 | 125.7 | 59% | 57–65 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Morgan State
|
+5.5 | 149.2 | 69% | 74–59 | ✗ |
|
Norfolk State
@
Grambling
|
-7.3 | 145.9 | 25% | 70–63 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
App State
|
+7.8 | 143.9 | 76% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.