Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -3.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -0.9 (+7.1) | 128.0 (-6.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.0 (+6.0) | 131.4 (-9.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.4 (+6.6) | 131.3 (-9.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.4 (+6.6) | 130.8 (-8.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L3 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 59.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#215) | 0.7 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#244) | 2.52 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#206) | 4.05 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#207) | 0.574 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 36.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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