Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MORG -200 GRAM +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -4.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -4.0 (-19.0) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -1.8 (-16.8) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -1.2 (-16.2) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -2.3 (-17.3) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#297) | -11.4 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#298) | -1.52 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#302) | -2.70 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#244) | 0.467 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 27.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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