Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | APP -7.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -6.7 (+3.3) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -7.0 (+3.0) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -6.9 (+3.1) | 141.4 (-13.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -7.2 (+2.8) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#194) | -2.5 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#216) | -2.68 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#197) | -3.77 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#202) | 0.406 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.