I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 11.1 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware @ Temple +2.7 152.7 60% 74–75 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.5 140.5 85% 71–90 ✓
LSU @ Wake Forest -15.0 145.0 9% 75–61 ✓
Kansas City @ Morehead State -0.9 131.8 47% 62–70 ✗
Marshall @ Indiana +21.9 146.6 98% 79–90 ✓
Sacramento State @ Arizona +36.1 141.1 100% 59–105 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Washington State +21.7 160.8 98% 76–71 ✗
UC Irvine @ Santa Clara +8.7 136.8 78% 69–64 ✗
Idaho @ North Dakota State +17.3 136.9 94% 73–90 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Marquette +17.0 135.6 94% 66–80 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah State +28.7 143.3 100% 61–80 ✓
Weber State @ Utah Tech -5.0 149.4 32% 87–70 ✓
BYU @ Utah +10.7 134.7 83% 75–64 ✗
Winthrop @ Washington +4.6 158.7 66% 82–74 ✗
St. Thomas @ Seattle U +2.0 154.6 57% 64–81 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Loyola Marymount +10.4 146.4 83% 80–83 ✓
North Texas @ Drake +7.2 119.7 74% 57–54 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Seton Hall +27.6 138.3 99% 70–84 ✓
Troy @ Florida +19.6 135.3 96% 45–84 ✓
North Florida @ Florida International +10.7 124.1 83% 69–84 ✓
Kansas @ Iona -6.9 153.0 26% 96–83 ✓
Merrimack @ Boston University +15.3 116.7 92% 60–61 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Montana State +11.5 168.6 85% 68–75 ✓
Fordham @ Central Connecticut -8.2 133.3 23% 89–83 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +15.9 138.5 93% 85–81 ✗
Western Michigan @ SE Louisiana +3.1 147.5 61% 81–77 ✗
The Citadel @ South Carolina State -6.3 165.4 28% 91–79 ✓
Alcorn State @ Milwaukee -4.5 129.3 34% 61–57 ✓
Evansville @ Eastern Illinois +0.7 123.0 53% 70–54 ✗
James Madison @ Florida Atlantic +4.6 152.9 66% 69–65 ✗
American University @ Duquesne +14.1 144.6 90% 79–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Fairfield +13.0 137.7 88% 75–70 ✗
Rider @ South Carolina +18.7 132.0 96% 58–65 ✓
Siena @ Bucknell +16.0 149.1 93% 56–65 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ DePaul +9.7 167.0 81% 63–101 ✓
Chicago State @ Bowling Green +4.0 145.9 64% 57–75 ✓
Southern @ Tennessee State +0.4 137.9 52% 82–80 ✗
UL Monroe @ SMU +15.5 159.2 92% 67–74 ✓
Portland @ Incarnate Word -5.4 130.8 31% 77–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Arkansas +14.6 154.3 91% 60–76 ✓
Dayton @ Belmont +9.8 142.5 81% 63–61 ✗
Kansas City @ Arkansas State -7.5 132.8 25% 55–66 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Princeton +21.2 143.4 97% 79–89 ✓
Dartmouth @ Bryant +2.7 142.8 60% 63–61 ✗
Wofford @ Georgia -1.6 142.5 44% 68–65 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State -13.1 149.1 12% 72–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Kennesaw State +14.2 153.3 90% 52–89 ✓
Brown @ Quinnipiac +4.3 141.4 65% 72–61 ✗
North Alabama @ Alabama State +14.6 141.6 91% 81–69 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Radford -0.0 131.6 50% 75–88 ✗
North Dakota @ Kansas State +12.6 145.3 87% 42–84 ✓
Villanova @ La Salle -21.0 151.3 3% 72–46 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ San Diego +20.7 128.2 97% 56–52 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.2 144.8 85% 78–85 ✓
Miami @ Alabama +12.8 159.2 88% 64–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.