Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +42 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -13.1 (+28.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -10.0 (+32.0) | 139.5 (-13.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -9.6 (+32.4) | 143.9 (-17.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -9.7 (+32.3) | 144.3 (-18.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -10.7 (+31.3) | 143.2 (-17.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#243) | -9.9 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#235) | -1.99 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#221) | -3.80 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#268) | 0.394 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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