Montana State
Bobcats
75
–
68
FINAL
Neutral
Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational
Southeast Missouri State
Redhawks
Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -11.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.7 (-0.7) | 153.6 (-10.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.4 (-0.4) | 157.8 (-14.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.9 (+0.1) | 161.3 (-18.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.7 (+0.3) | 159.3 (-16.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#111) | -7.4 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#204) | -1.81 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#225) | -3.26 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#153) | 0.369 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 36.9% |
Game Analysis
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