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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Kentucky +21.5 140.3 97% 52–86 ✓
Xavier @ Virginia Tech +10.3 130.8 83% 59–58 ✗
Arizona State @ Loyola Chicago +11.4 144.4 85% 59–77 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Virginia +10.9 146.5 84% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Iowa +35.7 160.6 100% 51–85 ✓
Penn State @ LSU +21.0 131.7 97% 63–68 ✓
Lehigh @ Virginia +17.8 127.6 95% 43–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Florida Gulf Coast +20.2 148.4 97% 67–77 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +17.1 148.7 94% 85–94 ✓
Morehead State @ Arkansas State +5.5 127.3 69% 75–51 ✗
Alcorn State @ Southern Illinois +5.1 126.3 68% 59–62 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +10.8 142.2 84% 63–77 ✓
Iowa State @ Memphis +10.3 140.6 83% 78–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Boise State +25.2 133.6 99% 46–39 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Georgetown -2.1 140.9 42% 77–74 ✓
Towson @ New Mexico -3.5 149.9 37% 73–58 ✓
Wichita State @ Missouri -1.9 135.4 43% 61–55 ✓
Southern Miss @ Montana +8.9 135.2 79% 62–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Wake Forest +11.2 143.1 85% 77–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Pacific +11.2 143.8 85% 50–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Duke -7.8 154.9 24% 81–84 ✗
USC @ San Diego State -11.2 133.3 15% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ UAB +5.0 150.0 67% 63–61 ✗
Louisville @ Maryland -3.8 140.1 37% 63–55 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ North Carolina A&T +4.2 136.5 65% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +15.1 124.5 92% 75–70 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Providence +17.0 132.8 94% 71–85 ✓
Mississippi State @ Richmond -3.2 141.4 38% 82–71 ✓
Montana State @ Incarnate Word -4.9 147.8 33% 83–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Kentucky +17.5 143.0 94% 66–81 ✓
Coppin State @ East Carolina +14.7 145.4 91% 68–70 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Elon -4.2 135.0 35% 93–81 ✓
Marist @ Army +11.1 140.9 84% 61–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State -1.7 160.0 44% 75–97 ✗
McNeese @ Samford +3.5 144.1 62% 75–83 ✓
Northern Iowa @ St. Bonaventure +23.6 132.4 98% 90–80 ✗
Western Carolina @ Gardner-Webb +2.6 148.2 59% 59–87 ✓
Navy @ Mount St. Mary's -7.0 126.5 26% 67–40 ✓
Delaware State @ Long Island University +2.6 136.4 59% 65–99 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +11.2 154.1 85% 79–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Hofstra +13.9 147.2 90% 84–98 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +13.2 147.1 88% 70–83 ✓
Oklahoma @ UCF +3.8 138.1 64% 65–62 ✗
Robert Morris @ Davidson +21.5 140.2 97% 70–88 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ NC State +10.3 147.7 82% 81–90 ✓
UMBC @ Pittsburgh -0.4 132.8 49% 87–77 ✓
Rutgers @ Massachusetts +9.9 144.1 82% 83–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Cincinnati +8.2 140.9 77% 61–59 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Portland +6.2 151.8 71% 68–74 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Illinois +3.1 152.3 61% 67–79 ✓
Campbell @ Stetson -0.4 112.8 49% 60–58 ✓
Maine @ Bradley +19.4 125.0 96% 39–71 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon State -3.0 132.0 39% 60–45 ✓
Furman @ South Carolina Upstate +0.3 151.9 51% 87–77 ✗
Idaho State @ Air Force +15.8 119.0 92% 48–59 ✓
Charleston @ Chattanooga +21.1 153.1 97% 68–66 ✗
Georgia State @ Rhode Island +5.5 146.6 69% 59–94 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +26.3 154.7 99% 57–89 ✓
NJIT @ St. John's +17.1 152.9 94% 68–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Western Michigan -12.5 136.8 13% 85–93 ✗
UCLA @ UNLV -8.8 141.4 21% 73–51 ✓
Vermont @ UNC Greensboro +1.5 122.4 56% 51–54 ✓
Northeastern @ Harvard +4.6 128.1 66% 57–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross -7.6 138.6 24% 70–55 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +7.3 123.0 75% 61–73 ✓
Denver @ Utah Valley +15.5 141.3 92% 68–77 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Creighton +12.5 139.9 87% 65–70 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Pepperdine -7.2 135.8 26% 59–56 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.