Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -16.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -16.6 (-1.6) | 147.2 (-0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -12.0 (+3.0) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -13.5 (+1.5) | 144.9 (+2.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -13.5 (+1.5) | 146.8 (+0.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#119) | -6.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#204) | -1.84 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#207) | -3.37 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#122) | 0.428 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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