Western Michigan
Broncos
93
–
85
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Hilton Garden Inn FGCU Invitational
Purdue Fort Wayne
Mastodons
Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | WMU +150 PFW -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -13.3 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+40.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -8.5 (+16.5) | 144.9 (+33.1) | 22% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PFW -7.3 (+15.3) | 138.5 (+39.5) | 26% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | PFW -6.7 (+14.7) | 138.2 (+39.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -5.8 (+13.8) | 139.6 (+38.4) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | WMU 83 – 71 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-6 |
| Home | 4-10 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -15.7 (#353) | -2.4 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#214) | 1.45 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#199) | 1.74 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#133) | 0.588 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 20.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.3% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 9.2% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 58.6% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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