We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Western Michigan Broncos
93 85 OT
FINAL Neutral Hilton Garden Inn FGCU Invitational
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Alico Arena (Neutral) · November 27, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread PFW -4.0 Home covered
O/U 140.0 Over
Money WMU +150 / PFW -170
Model Predictions
Spread Total WMU win
Actual WMU +8 178 Won
Massey PFW -13.3 (+21.3)
Massey Totals 137.3 (+40.7)
Bradley-Terry 13%
Weighted B-T 11%
Baseline Plus ML PFW -8.5 (+16.5) 144.9 (+33.1) 22%
Model 4 ML PFW -7.3 (+15.3) 138.5 (+39.5) 26%
Model 3 ML PFW -6.7 (+14.7) 138.2 (+39.8) 25%
Baseline ML PFW -5.8 (+13.8) 139.6 (+38.4) 20%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2025 WMU 8371 PFW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WMU PFW
Overall 8-23 21-12
Conference 4-16 15-6
Home 4-10 14-2
Away 2-13 6-7
Neutral 2-0 1-3
Last 5 0-3 2-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 65.0 71.6
Avg Pts Against 76.2 70.5
Massey -15.7 (#353) -2.4 (#216)
Bradley-Terry -0.44 (#214) 1.45 (#77)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.39 (#199) 1.74 (#96)
RPI 0.534 (#133) 0.588 (#75)
Shooting & Four Factors WMU PFW
FG% 32.1% 39.7%
3PT% 20.4% 31.7%
REB / G 33.0 36.3
OREB / G 12.5 10.7
AST / TO 0.68 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 36.3% 45.4%
TOV% 23.0% 22.7%
ORB% 27.5% 27.8%
FT Rate 9.2% 17.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 58.0% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 13.2% 21.2%
DRB% 58.6% 76.2%
Opp FT Rate 28.3% 16.1%

Game Analysis

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