Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -1.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.0 (+1.0) | 125.1 (-20.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.7 (+1.3) | 130.8 (-25.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.3 (+1.7) | 131.0 (-26.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -3.1 (-0.1) | 131.1 (-26.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-6 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#229) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#184) | 0.83 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#214) | 0.79 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#252) | 0.545 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 81.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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