Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -17.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -14.5 (-0.5) | 134.4 (+21.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -12.9 (+1.1) | 136.6 (+19.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -15.4 (-1.4) | 135.5 (+20.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -15.3 (-1.3) | 137.6 (+18.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#66) | -3.7 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#29) | -0.35 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#51) | -0.34 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#13) | 0.419 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 41.2% |
Game Analysis
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