Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +19 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -10.9 (-29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -6.5 (-25.5) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -7.3 (-26.3) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -1.4 (-20.4) | 145.1 (-8.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -5.8 (-24.8) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#9) | 5.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#2) | 2.78 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.72 (#1) | 4.75 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#12) | 0.573 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 25.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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