Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +14 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -13.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -8.8 (+5.2) | 146.9 (+35.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -10.5 (+3.5) | 148.4 (+33.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -11.7 (+2.3) | 146.9 (+35.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -10.4 (+3.6) | 145.5 (+36.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#79) | -1.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#182) | -1.09 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#174) | -1.26 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#119) | 0.514 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 11.2% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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