Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | SDSU -120 USC +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +15 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -11.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -8.0 (-7.0) | 136.4 (-35.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.6 (-8.4) | 136.3 (-35.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -6.1 (-8.9) | 134.9 (-33.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.1 (-7.9) | 138.2 (-37.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#136) | 14.0 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#78) | 3.09 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#63) | 4.29 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#57) | 0.599 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 39.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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