Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -10.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -6.9 (+2.1) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.8 (+2.2) | 147.0 (+24.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.3 (+2.7) | 149.0 (+22.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -7.2 (+1.8) | 149.8 (+21.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#150) | -1.7 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#133) | 1.14 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#137) | 1.48 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#197) | 0.509 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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