Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -12.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -7.4 (-4.4) | 142.3 (+14.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -8.2 (-5.2) | 142.8 (+14.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -8.7 (-5.7) | 144.1 (+12.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -7.8 (-4.8) | 145.1 (+11.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 1-19 |
| Home | 18-2 | 3-13 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#43) | -3.3 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#97) | -2.10 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#99) | -2.31 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#215) | 0.398 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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