Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -330 JOES +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -1.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.5 (-4.5) | 140.6 (+10.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.7 (-2.3) | 139.1 (+11.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.8 (-2.2) | 140.6 (+10.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.1 (-2.9) | 141.0 (+10.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 0-19 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-11 | 9-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L21 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#279) | -3.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#272) | -1.23 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#268) | -2.11 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#305) | 0.432 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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