Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -165 TOW +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -2.9 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.0 (-12.0) | 143.0 (-12.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.7 (-13.3) | 145.9 (-14.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.9 (-13.1) | 148.3 (-17.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.8 (-12.2) | 147.9 (-16.9) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#176) | 2.5 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#203) | -0.66 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#218) | -1.07 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#176) | 0.450 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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