Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +150 GCU -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +3 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -6.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.8 (+0.8) | 134.0 (-19.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.5 (+2.5) | 128.5 (-13.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -4.0 (+1.0) | 137.7 (-22.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -3.4 (+0.4) | 138.3 (-23.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | GCU 83 – 73 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 23-8 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 0-13 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 62.0 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#327) | 4.1 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#216) | -0.19 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#219) | -0.30 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#219) | 0.436 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 44.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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